Mosaic Signals 002: Oil, Employment & Richie Rich
Ideas, tools, and data that sharpen thinking
Mosaic Signals are mid-cycle updates between our twice-monthly flagship pieces. High signal and improvisation.
We're drowning in data. I'll throw you a lifeline with three important numbers impacting you.
1. Oil has its groove back
For a while, Tesla, solar panels, and wind farms made it easy to write oil’s obituary. Then came Iran. Now it’s front and center of every discourse — and for good reason. Brent crude oil is trading above $111 a barrel, up nearly $48 from a year ago.
Setting aside the complexities of pollution and climate for a moment, the reality is that oil touches everything.
The cost to ship goods, the raw materials in your favorite shirt, the fertilizer that grew your food — it all traces back to oil. When the price goes up at the source, it goes up at the register.
Does this mean more “Buy Now, Pay Later?”
Source: Colorado Oil and Gas Association
2. Should you have been a Doctor?
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% in March — layoff headlines and the Iran conflict haven’t moved the needle. AI hasn’t replaced humans. Yet.
Who’s hiring: Healthcare added 76,000 jobs.
Who’s firing: The federal government shed 18,000, finance another 16,000.
Hold your horses: A spike in healthcare hiring reflects the end of a workers’ strike and seasonal warming — not a structural shift, economists tell Reuters.
Elsewhere, employers are firmly in “wait and see” mode.
3. Richie Rich?
A 50-year American Enterprise Institute (AEI) study says 31% of US households are now upper-middle class — up from 10% in 1979. This is defined as USD $133,000- $400,000.
The share living in poverty (earning <$40,000) dropped from 30% to 19%.
The unconventional thesis: Maybe the middle class is hollowing out because they're moving on up.
The catch: Income went up. So did everything else, from housing, schooling, child care, and transportation. Many of those upwardly mobile families don’t feel richer, and feelings vote.
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As always, I deeply appreciate your time reading.
Thanks,
Hari
Re: middle class, I think part of the problem is defining "rich" by income. "Rich" should be based on net worth as the measure of wealth. I'm sure plenty of those "upper middle class" to which they refer are spending even more than they are bringing in. Realizing that trap was the biggest financial shift for me.