Mosaic Signals 002
Ideas, tools, and data that sharpen thinking
Mosaic Signals are mid-cycle updates between our twice-monthly flagship pieces. High signal and improvisation.
We're drowning in data. I'll throw you a lifeline with three important numbers impacting you.
1. Oil has its groove back
For a while, Tesla, solar panels, and wind farms made it easy to write oil’s obituary. Then came Iran. Now it’s front and center of every discourse — and for good reason. Brent crude oil is trading above $111 a barrel, up nearly $48 from a year ago.
Setting aside the complexities of pollution and climate for a moment, the reality is that oil touches everything.
The cost to ship goods, the raw materials in your favorite shirt, the fertilizer that grew your food — it all traces back to oil. When the price goes up at the source, it goes up at the register.
Does this mean more “Buy Now, Pay Later?”
Source: Colorado Oil and Gas Association
2. Should you have been a Doctor?
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% in March — layoff headlines and the Iran conflict haven’t moved the needle. AI hasn’t replaced humans. Yet.
Who’s hiring: Healthcare added 76,000 jobs.
Who’s firing: The federal government shed 18,000, finance another 16,000.
Hold your horses: A spike in healthcare hiring reflects the end of a workers’ strike and seasonal warming — not a structural shift, economists tell Reuters.
Elsewhere, employers are firmly in “wait and see” mode.
3. Richie Rich?
A 50-year American Enterprise Institute (AEI) study says 31% of US households are now upper-middle class — up from 10% in 1979. This is defined as USD $133,000- $400,000.
The share living in poverty (earning <$40,000) dropped from 30% to 19%.
The unconventional thesis: Maybe the middle class is hollowing out because they're moving on up.
The catch: Income went up. So did everything else, from housing, schooling, child care, and transportation. Many of those upwardly mobile families don’t feel richer, and feelings vote.
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As always, I deeply appreciate your time reading.
Thanks,
Hari