Just watched Uncut Gems this past weekend. The constant state of impending make or break, the eternal precipice that he lives on, is a feeling that is easy to justify as ‘momentum’.
There’s a reason why country singers have issued warning about mamas not letting their babies grow up to be cowboys, and why a sad demise comes with the territory of being a gunslinger.
I love this, Hari. All three - downside, base, and optimistic cases are all useful, and especially useful when you do them together.
There are the Howard Ratners of the world. And, there's also the flipside, what I think of as the Chicken-Littles of the world, who are so fixated on the downside case that they can't see that a base case or upside case is also possible.
I see it often in investing, where people hold hundreds of thousands of dollars of cash out of fear of putting it in the market and seeing it drop.
PS. The parallel mental framework to stress-testing is probabilistic thinking, which is also incredibly useful in planning.
This really resonates; every investor, family and business can apply this framework.
Whether you’re managing a high-net-worth portfolio or just starting a family savings plan, the temptation to 'bet the opal' is the ultimate behavioral trap. I’ve seen it at every income level. We often spend so much time chasing the big win that we forget the most important rule of wealth: the goal isn't just to get rich, it's to stay rich.
Just watched Uncut Gems this past weekend. The constant state of impending make or break, the eternal precipice that he lives on, is a feeling that is easy to justify as ‘momentum’.
There’s a reason why country singers have issued warning about mamas not letting their babies grow up to be cowboys, and why a sad demise comes with the territory of being a gunslinger.
As always, great work and timely connection.
Thank you for the kind comment and talk about timing! Great movie. 💯 on the country singers. A lot of good lessons in songs are timeless.
I love this, Hari. All three - downside, base, and optimistic cases are all useful, and especially useful when you do them together.
There are the Howard Ratners of the world. And, there's also the flipside, what I think of as the Chicken-Littles of the world, who are so fixated on the downside case that they can't see that a base case or upside case is also possible.
I see it often in investing, where people hold hundreds of thousands of dollars of cash out of fear of putting it in the market and seeing it drop.
PS. The parallel mental framework to stress-testing is probabilistic thinking, which is also incredibly useful in planning.
I like that! Chicken Littles! Great metaphor to keep in mind!
Ah yes the ones who are trying to time the market (waiting for the big drop!). Always tough to do.
This really resonates; every investor, family and business can apply this framework.
Whether you’re managing a high-net-worth portfolio or just starting a family savings plan, the temptation to 'bet the opal' is the ultimate behavioral trap. I’ve seen it at every income level. We often spend so much time chasing the big win that we forget the most important rule of wealth: the goal isn't just to get rich, it's to stay rich.